The S&P 500 edged up +0.02%, the Nasdaq rose +0.1%, and the Dow gained +0.4%, with all three indexes pushing to new highs. The biggest driver was falling oil prices, which boosted optimism across the market. Today, all eyes are on the PCE inflation report — the Fed’s preferred measure of price changes — along with a revised GDP reading and weekly jobless claims. 📌

There’s a tug-of-war happening under the surface. On the positive side, oil prices keep dropping — partly on reports of a possible deal to open the Strait of Hormuz — and Goldman Sachs just raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000 points, implying a 17% annual return driven largely by AI-related trading. That’s the good news. The worrying side: first-quarter GDP came in at just 1.6%, well below the 2.0% forecast. Weekly jobless claims rose to 215,000, above expectations. And food prices are expected to climb again due to extreme weather, cattle shortages, and tariffs — the USDA forecasts a 3.2% rise this year. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the current optimism reminds him of 2007 and 1972 — years that preceded major downturns. TrendMind.AI 📖

the Federal Reserve’s preferred way to measure inflation by tracking changes in the prices of goods and services that consumers actually buy. Why you care today: April’s monthly core PCE came in at 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%, which could signal the Fed is in less of a rush to raise interest rates — and that’s generally good news for stock prices. 💼