📊 Market Overview
Oil prices continued their sharp decline, with both Brent and WTI crude falling more than 5% each on expectations of a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding being signed in Switzerland. U.S. retail sales for May came in surprisingly strong at 0.9% month-over-month, well above the 0.5% forecast, signaling resilient consumer spending. The biggest event to watch today is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at 4:00 PM ET — new Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting leading the committee — with rates expected to hold at 3.75%.
📊 Market Snapshot
Today’s Fed decision and Chair Warsh’s first press conference could set the tone for markets all summer — pay attention to what he says, not just what the Fed does.
📈 The Big Picture
Three powerful forces are colliding today. Oil is plunging on hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal, strong retail sales suggest American consumers are still spending despite inflation above 4%, and the Fed must now decide whether to raise rates, hold steady, or signal what comes next. Meanwhile, SpaceX announced its first-ever acquisition since its historic IPO — buying AI coding platform Cursor in a $60 billion all-stock deal to compete with OpenAI and Anthropic.
For your portfolio, this is a day where everything connects. Falling oil prices could ease inflation pressure, but hot retail sales give the Fed reason to stay hawkish (meaning: keeping rates high to fight inflation). If Warsh sounds cautious and balanced, stocks across many sectors could rally. If he sounds aggressive about future rate hikes, expect turbulence — especially in highly valued tech names.
📖 Term of the Day
FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) — the group within the Federal Reserve that votes on interest rates and decides how to manage the U.S. money supply.
Why you care today: The FOMC announces its rate decision at 4:00 PM ET, followed by new economic projections and Chair Warsh’s first-ever press conference at 4:30 PM — all of which could move stocks, bonds, and your portfolio in real time.
💼 Watchlist: 3 Stocks to Know Today
Delta Air Lines (DAL) — “The Upgrade”
Bernstein raised Delta’s price target from $88 to $93, keeping its Outperform rating, citing stable demand with no signs of consumer weakness. The firm expects revenue per unit to rise 12.2% in Q2 compared to last year — a sign air travel remains strong.
Ferrari (RACE) — “The Comeback Bet”
Ferrari’s stock has been falling on criticism of its new electric Luce model, but Morgan Stanley upgraded it to Overweight and raised its price target to €380. Analysts believe the market overreacted to the Luce backlash and Ferrari’s profitability remains high.
AEHR Test Systems (AEHR) — “The Small-Cap Spark”
AEHR jumped 9.15% in pre-market after receiving a new order for its FOX-XP testing system from a global networking customer. The order strengthens AEHR’s position in the data center and optical connectivity testing market — a growing niche tied to AI infrastructure buildout.
💬 Esther’s Take
