The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, the Dow gained 0.7%, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.8% on Wednesday in a broadly positive session. The biggest driver was falling oil prices — Brent crude dropped below $100 per barrel — signaling hope for peace talks with Iran despite ongoing tensions. Today, all eyes turn to a scheduled speech by President Trump, which markets will parse for clues on trade policy, fiscal spending, and geopolitical posture.

There’s a strange tug-of-war happening right now. Oil prices are falling because traders hope diplomacy with Iran will work, and stocks are rising on that same optimism. But behind the scenes, the Pentagon is reportedly preparing “final strike” options against Iran — including seizing islands, blocking Iranian oil exports, and broad military operations if diplomacy fails.

Analysts note the market is in a “buy everything” mode, purchasing both growth stocks and war-related trades simultaneously. That’s a classic sign investors haven’t decided which story to believe yet. A sudden escalation — especially one disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — could spike energy prices and rattle everything from your index funds to your grocery bill.

Economic numbers that are “just right”: not strong enough to cause inflation, and not weak enough to signal a recession. Why you care today: Weekly jobless claims came in at 210K, nearly matching expectations — a Goldilocks reading that suggests the Fed can afford to stay patient on interest rate cuts without worrying about an economic downturn.