The S&P 500 rose ▲0.02%, the Nasdaq gained ▲0.1%, and the Dow climbed ▲0.4%, all hitting fresh highs driven by falling oil prices. The biggest driver was growing optimism around lower energy costs and reports of a possible U.S.-Iran deal to open the Strait of Hormuz. Today, all eyes are on the PCE inflation index, plus GDP data and weekly jobless claims. 📌

Two big forces shaped markets yesterday. First, oil prices keep dropping, which acts like a quiet pay raise for consumers and businesses alike. Reports of a possible U.S.-Iran deal added fuel to the optimism, even though analysts say the deal may not meaningfully benefit the U.S. long-term. Second, fresh inflation data came in softer than expected — the monthly Core PCE dropped to 0.2%, down from 0.3% prior. That hints the Fed may slow down on rate hikes. But not everything is rosy. Q1 GDP growth came in at just 1.6%, well below the 2.0% forecast, signaling the economy is cooling. Weekly jobless claims also ticked up to 215,000, above the 211,000 expected. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that today’s optimism reminds him of 1972 and 2007 — years that preceded sharp downturns. TrendMind.AI 📖

the Federal Reserve’s favorite way to measure inflation, tracking price changes in what consumers buy while stripping out volatile food and energy costs. Why you care today: The monthly Core PCE just dropped to 0.2% from 0.3%, which could signal the Fed will pause or slow rate hikes — a potential boost for stocks and bonds alike. 💼