The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the Dow slipped 0.2%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.8% on Tuesday as rising oil prices and Middle East tensions spooked investors. The biggest driver was escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, with reports of American forces arriving in the region. Today, keep your eyes on U.S. crude oil inventory data, where analysts expect a draw of 1.3 million barrels — a shift that could push oil prices even higher.

Three forces are hitting markets at once: a shaky economy, military conflicts in the Middle East, and uncertainty about what the Fed will do with interest rates. Research from DataTrek shows these same three forces have been behind every major double-digit stock market decline over the past 100 years — and all three are active right now.

U.S. crude oil inventories previously rose by 6.156 million barrels, but forecasts now point to a decline of 1.3 million barrels. Less oil in storage means higher oil prices, which can feed inflation. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned that if oil hits $150 per barrel, it could trigger a global recession.

A weekly report showing how much oil the U.S. has in storage. When inventories drop, it usually means demand is outpacing supply, which pushes oil prices up. Why you care today: Inventories are expected to fall by 1.3 million barrels after previously rising by over 6 million — a sharp reversal that could push oil prices higher and add inflationary pressure.