📊 Market Overview
The S&P 500 rose 1.1%, the Nasdaq surged 1.6%, and the Dow gained 0.7%, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at fresh all-time highs. The rally was fueled by strong earnings — especially from Tesla — and an extended ceasefire agreement with Iran despite ongoing tensions near the Strait of Hormuz. Today, watch for earnings reports from Intel, American Express, and Lockheed Martin, plus the Flash PMI data that will signal whether the U.S. economy is still expanding.
📊 Market Snapshot
Markets are hitting new highs on strong earnings, but rising oil prices and Middle East tensions mean this rally needs constant proof to keep going.
📈 The Big Picture
Earnings season is delivering. Tesla posted a 16% jump in vehicle revenue and beat expectations across the board, while Texas Instruments reported a 19% revenue surge driven by a 90% spike in data center sales — a sign the semiconductor recovery is real. SK Hynix blew past forecasts with revenue up 198% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the Iran ceasefire is holding, which is keeping markets calm, but oil keeps climbing on fears that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could be disrupted.
On the economic front, weekly jobless claims came in at 214,000 — higher than the 211,000 forecast and the prior 208,000 reading. That hints at softening in the job market, which could weigh on consumer confidence. For your portfolio, this is the tension to watch: strong corporate profits are pushing stocks up, but cracks in the economy and geopolitical risks could shift the mood quickly.
📖 Term of the Day
Flash PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) — a monthly survey of business managers that measures whether the economy is expanding or shrinking. A reading above 50 means growth; below 50 means contraction.
Why you care today: Today’s Flash PMI forecast points to 53.0 for manufacturing, suggesting the U.S. economy is still growing — but if the number comes in too hot, it could reignite inflation fears and push bond yields higher.
💼 Watchlist: 3 Stocks to Know Today
Texas Instruments (TXN) — “The Comeback Kid”
TXN beat earnings estimates with revenue up 19% and profits up 31% year-over-year. Barclays upgraded the stock from Underweight to Equalweight with a new price target of $250, citing booming data center demand that grew roughly 90%.
ServiceNow (NOW) — “The Caution Sign”
Raymond James cut its price target from $160 to $130 despite keeping an Outperform rating. Revenue grew 22%, but slowing growth in key metrics and deal delays tied to Middle East tensions are creating uncertainty.
Tesla (TSLA) — “The Earnings Star”
Tesla reported $22.39 billion in revenue — beating the $22.2 billion forecast — with gross margins jumping to 21.1% versus the 17.7% expected. CEO Elon Musk said the Cybercab could become central to production and that the Optimus robot may operate outside Tesla facilities by next year.
💬 Esther’s Take
