📊 Market Overview
The S&P 500 climbed 3.6% last week, the Nasdaq 100 surged 5.1%, and the semiconductor sector jumped roughly 9% as money rotated back into tech. The biggest driver was a cooling panic from late July’s momentum unwind, with options activity showing fear had nearly vanished — call options (bets that stocks will rise) made up over 58% of contracts. The one event to watch this week is Wednesday’s CPI (Consumer Price Index — the government’s main measure of inflation), which will determine whether the Fed stays on hold or puts a rate hike back on the table.
📊 Market Snapshot
This week isn’t about earnings — it’s about whether inflation data on Wednesday lets the market keep climbing or slams the brakes.
📈 The Big Picture
Last week proved that companies are still making money — about 88% of S&P 500 companies that reported beat profit expectations, with earnings growing roughly 25%. Earnings season is winding down, though, with only about 2% of the S&P 500’s value left to report. So the spotlight now shifts entirely to economic data: CPI on Wednesday, PPI (Producer Price Index — inflation from the factory side) on Thursday, and retail sales on Friday.
The consensus expectation is for “Core CPI” (inflation excluding volatile food and energy prices) to come in around 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year. A reading at or below that would be great news for tech and growth stocks because it would push bond yields lower and keep the Fed from raising rates. But a hotter-than-expected number could reverse last week’s entire rally — especially since the market has already sprinted back to all-time highs and the fear cushion that existed two weeks ago is gone.
📖 Term of the Day
Core CPI — a version of the Consumer Price Index that strips out food and energy prices to show the underlying trend in inflation.
Why you care today: Wednesday’s Core CPI reading is expected at 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually. If it comes in higher, the Fed could put a September rate hike back in play, which would hurt stock prices — especially in tech.
💼 Watchlist: 3 Stocks to Know Today
CoreWeave (CRWV) — “The AI Stress Test”
This cloud infrastructure company reports Tuesday evening and will give one of the clearest reads on demand for AI computing power. Watch for details on contracts, capacity utilization, and capital spending — a strong report could lift the entire data center chain including NVIDIA (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO).
SanDisk (SNDK) — “The Caution Sign”
SanDisk holds an Investor Day this week after its stock dropped sharply despite a strong earnings report. The memory chip story remains powerful — Bank of America still sees a “supercycle” through 2027 — but investors punished the stock for not clearing an already-high bar, so watch for updated guidance.
Applied Materials (AMAT) — “The Equipment Bellwether”
This chipmaking equipment giant reports Thursday evening and is the week’s most important test for whether orders from memory, logic, and advanced packaging customers keep expanding. A strong report could boost peers like Lam Research (LRCX), KLA (KLAC), and ASML (ASML).
💬 Esther’s Take
