📊 Market Overview
Yesterday the S&P 500 fell 0.7%, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.6%, and the Russell 2000 slid 1.0% in a broad selloff. The biggest driver was rising long-term bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.66%, putting pressure across nearly every sector. The one event to watch today: Nvidia reports Q1 earnings after the market close, which could set the tone for AI and tech stocks going forward.
📊 Market Snapshot
Nvidia’s earnings tonight are a make-or-break moment for the entire AI trade — and rising bond yields are making investors increasingly nervous about high-growth tech.
📈 The Big Picture
Two forces are pulling at the market right now. First, bond yields (the return investors earn from government debt) keep climbing, with the 10-year yield approaching 4.7%. When bonds pay more, stocks — especially expensive growth names — look less attractive by comparison. Firms like BlackRock still recommend stocks over bonds, but the trend is creating real anxiety. Adding fuel to the fire, Japan’s bond yields are also hitting highs, which can ripple into U.S. markets and add global volatility.
Second, everything AI revolves around Nvidia tonight. The stock sits near all-time highs after surging roughly 40% from April to mid-May, then pulling back 6.4% from its peak. Investors aren’t just watching whether Nvidia beats Wall Street’s official estimates — buy-side expectations (what big money managers actually expect) are even higher than the published consensus. That means even a solid report could disappoint if it doesn’t clear that hidden bar. If you own any tech or AI-heavy ETFs, tonight’s results will likely move your portfolio tomorrow morning.
📖 Term of the Day
Buy-side expectations — the unofficial performance targets that large institutional investors (hedge funds, mutual funds) actually anticipate, which are often higher than the published analyst consensus.
Why you care today: Nvidia’s stock reaction tonight depends not just on beating the official analyst estimates but on clearing these tougher, unwritten buy-side expectations.
💼 Watchlist: 3 Stocks to Know Today
Nvidia (NVDA) — “The Main Event”
Nvidia reports Q1 results after the close today, and the outcome could swing the entire tech sector. Adding intrigue, China recently added Nvidia’s new RTX 5090D V2 chip to its tariff restricted list during CEO Jensen Huang’s visit to Beijing.
Target (TGT) — “The Comeback Kid”
Target reported Q1 earnings this morning that beat expectations, with revenue of $25.44 billion (vs. $24.66B expected) and EPS of $1.71 (vs. $1.46 expected). Strong in-store sales and private-label brands drove the surprise, but analysts warn the stock could face a “sell the news” reaction if it struggles to break above the $130 area.
SM Energy (SM) — “The Oil Play”
Raymond James upgraded SM Energy from Underperform to Outperform with a $55 price target, citing benefits from rising oil prices tied to Middle East tensions. The company has cut debt by about $700 million and plans to start buying back shares in Q2 2026.
💬 Esther’s Take
